Headline risk
16%
Moderate RiskDelivery Rider
AI displacement pressure score based on US employment data, wages, and demand signals. Built from 3 related occupations weighted by relevance.
Why this score
35% of tasks overlap with current AI
31% human advantage from judgment & presence
81% demand buffer from the local labour market
These factors interact with each other — the final score is not a simple sum of these bars.
Share of tasks AI can handle today
Work that requires human presence or coordination
How strong local hiring demand is for this role
How complete the underlying data is
Workflow profile
How this role's daily work breaks down across different dimensions.
Workflow dimensions (0 = low, 1 = high)
US employment data
Employment overview
Share of job tasks AI can currently perform
Annual median wage
Projected employment change 2024–2034
Education and training typically needed
Key metrics
Job zone
2The occupation usually needs some preparation before entry.
Median wage
USD 37,130USD 29,120 to USD 47,590
Openings
51.3K8.8% projected change
Median age
46.43.6M employed
What this job involves
Drive truck or other vehicle over established routes or within an established territory and sell or deliver goods, such as food products, including restaurant take-out items, or pick up or deliver items such as commercial laundry. May also take orders, collect payment, or stock merchandise at point of delivery.
Entry requirements: Some preparation
The occupation usually needs some preparation before entry.
Wage context
Median annual
USD 37,130
Mean annual
USD 39,670
10th percentile: USD 21,760
25th percentile: USD 29,120
75th percentile: USD 47,590
90th percentile: USD 59,730
Hourly median: USD 18
Employment: 417,420 workers
Demand outlook
Current employment
451.5K
Projected employment
491.3K
Openings: 51.3K
Projected change: 8.8%
Education: High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience: None
On-the-job training: Short-term on-the-job training
Median wage: USD 37,130
Overall employment of delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers is projected to grow 8 percent from 2024 to 2034, much faster than the average for all occupations.
Workforce profile
Based on a survey of workers currently in this occupation.
Protects from AI displacement
- Can telework <0.5% of workers
- License required 18.2% of workers
Typical background
- Certificate 16.2% of workers
- No education requirement 66.7% of workers
- High school diploma 33.3% of workers
- On-the-job training 11.72% of workers
- Prior work experience 15.2% of workers
Other characteristics
- Specific vocational preparation 62.8% of workers
Day-to-day work
Delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers pick up, transport, and drop off packages and small shipments within a local region or urban area.
Delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers have a physically demanding job. Driving a truck for long periods can be tiring. When loading and unloading cargo, drivers do a lot of lifting, carrying, and walking.
Delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers typically need a high school diploma or equivalent to enter these occupations. However, some opportunities exist for those without a high school diploma. Workers undergo 1 month or less of on-the-job training. They must have a driver’s license from the state in which they work and have a clean driving record.
Key tasks
- 1. Drive trucks to deliver such items as food, medical supplies, or newspapers. · AI can do 0%
- 2. Listen to and resolve customers' complaints regarding products or services. · AI can do 98%
- 3. Record sales or delivery information on daily sales or delivery record. · AI can do 0%
- 4. Inform regular customers of new products or services and price changes. · AI can do 0%
- 5. Collect money from customers, make change, and record transactions on customer receipts. · AI can do 0%
- 6. Maintain trucks and food-dispensing equipment and clean inside of machines that dispense food or beverages. · AI can do 0%
Tools commonly used
Work environment
- Outdoors, Exposed to All Weather Conditions 5.0/5
- Time Pressure 4.9/5
- Exposed to Very Hot or Cold Temperatures 4.8/5
- Spend Time Using Your Hands to Handle, Control, or Feel Objects, Tools, or Controls 4.6/5
- Face-to-Face Discussions with Individuals and Within Teams 4.6/5
- Importance of Repeating Same Tasks 4.4/5
Who does this work
Median age: 46.4
3.6M employed · Under 25: 7% · 25–54: 62% · 55+: 31%
Data sources: O*NET 30.2 / OEWS 2024 / ORS 2025 / OOH 2025-08-28 / Projections 2024-34 / CPS 2025 / Anthropic task penetration
Component occupations
Driver/sales workers
53-3031 · 50% weight
Motorcycle delivery man
Support bundle: Some preparation
Driver/sales workers
53-3031 · 30% weight
Delivery man using motorised PMDs
Support bundle: Some preparation
Grounds maintenance workers, all other
37-3019 · 20% weight
Logistics/Production planner
Support bundle: published
How this score works
The score measures how much this role's tasks overlap with current AI capabilities, adjusted for human-only requirements and local job market demand. This is a structural pressure estimate, not a prediction of job losses. Learn how scores work →