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AI Work Index

Research Library

What this page is for

This is the citation layer for the project. It stores the papers, reports, and datasets the repo references, plus short repo-specific notes about how each source is used. It does not restate formulas from Methodology, schema details from Data, or release narratives from Reports.

Entries

19

canonical research records

Active core

15

used directly by the live model

Next horizon

2

not yet absorbed into the live model

JSON artifact

1

research-library.json

Active core (15 entries)

Directly informs the live structural score, its context, or its official validation layer.

Anthropic Economic Index: New building blocks for understanding AI use

report 2026

Anthropic · Anthropic

Adds observed AI-usage evidence to the exposure stack and motivates the repo's task-primitives sidecar.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Observed Claude usage is not a full labour-market census and is still a platform-specific measure.

Repo use: Active live source in the audited exposure ensemble and a major input to the future task-native direction.

exposuretasksmeasurement
Used for: observed occupation exposure source · usage gap framing · task evidence design

Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

report 2026

Maxim Massenkoff, Peter McCrory · Anthropic

Separates theoretical capability from observed exposure and emphasizes that early labour effects remain limited.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Uses US outcome data and a platform-linked usage measure, so it still needs Singapore-specific interpretation.

Repo use: Primary candidate reference for promoting the shadow model beyond readiness-only governance.

tasksvalidationforecast
Used for: observed exposure framing · task-native shadow model · near-term impact interpretation

AI, Productivity, and Work Quality

working paper 2025

Erica Dillon, et al. · NBER

Adds evidence that AI can change both output quantity and work quality, reinforcing the need for occupation-specific augmentation priors.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Experimental and workflow-specific evidence still needs careful translation into occupation-level scoring.

Repo use: Useful as a V5.1 calibration reference rather than as a direct V4.x score ingredient.

productivityaugmentation
Used for: augmentation calibration priors · work-quality tradeoff framing
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w33795

Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market

working paper 2025

Menaka Hampole, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence D.W. Schmidt, Bryan Seegmiller · NBER

Shows that mean exposure and concentration of exposure in a few tasks can have different labour-demand implications.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: The repo uses a simplified shadow-model concentration buffer rather than the paper's full firm-task empirical setting.

Repo use: Primary scientific justification for publishing task exposure concentration as its own field and using it in the shadow model.

tasksvalidationmeasurement
Used for: task concentration buffer · task-native demand interpretation
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w33509

Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure

report 2025

ILO · International Labour Organization

Adds a recent global occupational exposure measure aligned to international occupation codes.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Still a global exposure measure rather than a Singapore outcome model.

Repo use: Included because its ISCO alignment improves crosswalk robustness for the ensemble.

exposure
Used for: ISCO-aligned exposure source

Large Language Models, Small Labor Market Effects

working paper 2025

Anders Humlum, Emilie Vestergaard · NBER

Finds small early labour-market effects from chatbot adoption despite meaningful task restructuring, supporting conservative near-term risk shrinkage.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: The study is Denmark-specific and examines early effects; longer-run displacement remains unresolved.

Repo use: Supports the repo's choice to keep structural risk separate from near-term or realised-risk interpretations.

forecastvalidation
Used for: near-term realised-risk shrinkage
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w33777

Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier

working paper 2025

Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, et al. · NBER

Highlights that AI gains are jagged across tasks and expertise levels rather than smooth across a whole occupation.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Provides strong augmentation evidence but still within constrained experimental settings.

Repo use: Supports the repo direction of modelling augmentation as its own construct rather than as a mirror image of automation.

productivityaugmentation
Used for: augmentation heterogeneity · workflow calibration
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w33641

The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

working paper 2025

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, David J. Deming · NBER

Documents that workplace generative-AI adoption is fast, supporting a separate adoption layer in forecast models.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Adoption speed alone does not identify realised labour displacement or productivity effects.

Repo use: Used to justify separating structural pressure from near-term realised-risk proxies.

forecastmeasurement
Used for: near-term adoption calibration
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w32966

Exposure to Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Mobility: A Cross-country Analysis

working paper 2024

IMF staff · IMF Working Paper

Suggests that mobility responses to AI pressure follow structured pathways rather than generic occupational distance rules.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Cross-country evidence informs the transition design, but the repo still needs a Singapore-specific mobility dataset.

Repo use: Guides the schema for observed transition priors and future ranking logic in the transition layer.

mobility
Used for: future empirical transition model

Generative AI at Work

working paper 2023

Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, Lindsey Raymond · NBER

Shows large heterogeneous productivity effects from AI assistance in a specific workflow, supporting separate augmentation modelling.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: The effect size is workflow-specific and should not be generalized into a universal augmentation constant.

Repo use: Candidate reference for replacing a single structural augmentation heuristic with workflow-aware priors.

productivityaugmentation
Used for: augmentation calibration priors
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w31161

GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models

article 2023

Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock · OpenAI

Frames LLM exposure around task feasibility and time-saving potential rather than broad automation narratives.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: The paper is early and US-oriented, and it does not by itself provide Singapore labour-market calibration.

Repo use: Used as a reference for the repo's future task-native model direction, not as a direct live source key.

exposuretasks
Used for: LLM-specific task exposure framing · candidate V5 task-native design

GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models

paper 2023

Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock · arXiv / OpenAI

Provides the GPT-oriented exposure source used as one leg of the live exposure ensemble.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Like other exposure indices, it measures capability overlap rather than realised displacement.

Repo use: Kept in the live ensemble because it adds an LLM-specific construct not covered by AIOE alone.

exposure
Used for: LLM exposure source

Labor Market Exposure to AI: Cross-country Differences and Distributional Implications

working paper 2023

Carolina Pizzinelli, et al. · IMF Working Paper

Provides the complementarity framework that the repo operationalises as the human bottleneck layer.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Designed as a broad labour-exposure framing rather than a Singapore occupation-level calibrated outcome model.

Repo use: Directly tied to the theta-based bottleneck implementation in the current scorer.

complementarityexposure
Used for: human bottleneck layer · complementarity framing

Occupational, industry, and geographic exposure to artificial intelligence: A novel dataset and its potential uses

paper 2021

Edward Felten, Manav Raj, Robert Seamans · Strategic Management Journal

Provides the published AIOE occupation exposure dataset used as a baseline source in the ensemble.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Measures theoretical exposure rather than realised AI use or job outcomes.

Repo use: Tied directly to the live AIOE source key and still used in the canonical exposure ensemble.

exposure
Used for: AIOE exposure source · occupation-level exposure baseline

A Method to Link Advances in Artificial Intelligence to Occupational Abilities

paper 2018

Edward Felten, Manav Raj, Robert Seamans · AEA Papers and Proceedings

Introduces the task-ability linkage approach that underpins modern AI-exposure measurement.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: Provides the conceptual bridge from AI capabilities to work content, but not current observed usage or Singapore-specific outcomes.

Repo use: Referenced as the foundational exposure framework behind later AIOE-style occupation measures.

exposuretasks
Used for: task-to-occupation exposure framing · methodology background
Open source → DOI 10.1257/pandp.20181021
Validation (1 entries)

Used to cross-check the live score rather than to generate it.

US BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034

dataset 2024

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Provides the external benchmark used for convergent validation and for the BLS-weighted proxy employment field.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: This is US evidence and should not be interpreted as Singapore occupation outcome truth.

Repo use: Lives in the repo as both a validation benchmark and a clearly labeled external proxy.

validationmeasurement
Used for: cross-country convergent validation · employment proxy wage-pool basis
Next horizon (2 entries)

Research not yet absorbed into the live model and reserved for future V5.x calibration work.

Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models

report 2026

METR · METR

Tracks the current task-duration horizons of frontier models and offers a capability input for scenario calibration.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: The benchmark is model-centric and software-task heavy, so it is not a direct occupation impact measure.

Repo use: Useful for the forecast layer, not for the core structural score.

forecastmeasurement
Used for: capability-horizon calibration

Making AI Count: The Next Measurement Frontier

working paper 2025

Diane Coyle, John Lourenze S. Poquiz · NBER

Argues that AI measurement should become more granular, task-based, and outcome-focused than current official statistics.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: This is a measurement agenda rather than an occupation-scoring formula.

Repo use: Best reference for the repo's longer-run shift from heuristic confidence toward richer uncertainty and task-native measurement.

measurementuncertainty
Used for: measurement philosophy · future uncertainty design
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w34330
Supporting context (1 entries)

Reference datasets and methodology inputs used for explanation, task matching, or supporting surfaces.

O*NET Database 29.1

dataset 2024

O*NET Resource Center · O*NET / U.S. Department of Labor

Provides the task statements, technology skills, and job-zone context used for explanation and task matching.

Limitations, repo use, and domains

Limitations: O*NET is US-based and enters the Singapore product mainly as explanatory or crosswalk context.

Repo use: Not a direct structural-score input, but essential for the supporting task layer and future task-native scoring.

taskscontextmeasurement
Used for: task context · technology-skill context · job-zone education proxy · task-primitives matching