Directly informs the live structural score, its context, or its official validation layer.
Anthropic Economic Index: New building blocks for understanding AI use
report 2026 Anthropic · Anthropic
Adds observed AI-usage evidence to the exposure stack and motivates the repo's task-primitives sidecar.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Observed Claude usage is not a full labour-market census and is still a platform-specific measure.
Repo use: Active live source in the audited exposure ensemble and a major input to the future task-native direction.
exposuretasksmeasurement
Used for: observed occupation exposure source · usage gap framing · task evidence design
Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
report 2026 Maxim Massenkoff, Peter McCrory · Anthropic
Separates theoretical capability from observed exposure and emphasizes that early labour effects remain limited.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Uses US outcome data and a platform-linked usage measure, so it still needs Singapore-specific interpretation.
Repo use: Primary candidate reference for promoting the shadow model beyond readiness-only governance.
tasksvalidationforecast
Used for: observed exposure framing · task-native shadow model · near-term impact interpretation
AI, Productivity, and Work Quality
working paper 2025 Erica Dillon, et al. · NBER
Adds evidence that AI can change both output quantity and work quality, reinforcing the need for occupation-specific augmentation priors.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Experimental and workflow-specific evidence still needs careful translation into occupation-level scoring.
Repo use: Useful as a V5.1 calibration reference rather than as a direct V4.x score ingredient.
productivityaugmentation
Used for: augmentation calibration priors · work-quality tradeoff framing
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w33795 Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market
working paper 2025 Menaka Hampole, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence D.W. Schmidt, Bryan Seegmiller · NBER
Shows that mean exposure and concentration of exposure in a few tasks can have different labour-demand implications.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: The repo uses a simplified shadow-model concentration buffer rather than the paper's full firm-task empirical setting.
Repo use: Primary scientific justification for publishing task exposure concentration as its own field and using it in the shadow model.
tasksvalidationmeasurement
Used for: task concentration buffer · task-native demand interpretation
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w33509 Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure
report 2025 ILO · International Labour Organization
Adds a recent global occupational exposure measure aligned to international occupation codes.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Still a global exposure measure rather than a Singapore outcome model.
Repo use: Included because its ISCO alignment improves crosswalk robustness for the ensemble.
exposure
Used for: ISCO-aligned exposure source
Large Language Models, Small Labor Market Effects
working paper 2025 Anders Humlum, Emilie Vestergaard · NBER
Finds small early labour-market effects from chatbot adoption despite meaningful task restructuring, supporting conservative near-term risk shrinkage.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: The study is Denmark-specific and examines early effects; longer-run displacement remains unresolved.
Repo use: Supports the repo's choice to keep structural risk separate from near-term or realised-risk interpretations.
forecastvalidation
Used for: near-term realised-risk shrinkage
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w33777 Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier
working paper 2025 Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, et al. · NBER
Highlights that AI gains are jagged across tasks and expertise levels rather than smooth across a whole occupation.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Provides strong augmentation evidence but still within constrained experimental settings.
Repo use: Supports the repo direction of modelling augmentation as its own construct rather than as a mirror image of automation.
productivityaugmentation
Used for: augmentation heterogeneity · workflow calibration
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w33641 The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI
working paper 2025 Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, David J. Deming · NBER
Documents that workplace generative-AI adoption is fast, supporting a separate adoption layer in forecast models.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Adoption speed alone does not identify realised labour displacement or productivity effects.
Repo use: Used to justify separating structural pressure from near-term realised-risk proxies.
forecastmeasurement
Used for: near-term adoption calibration
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w32966 Exposure to Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Mobility: A Cross-country Analysis
working paper 2024 IMF staff · IMF Working Paper
Suggests that mobility responses to AI pressure follow structured pathways rather than generic occupational distance rules.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Cross-country evidence informs the transition design, but the repo still needs a Singapore-specific mobility dataset.
Repo use: Guides the schema for observed transition priors and future ranking logic in the transition layer.
mobility
Used for: future empirical transition model
Generative AI at Work
working paper 2023 Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, Lindsey Raymond · NBER
Shows large heterogeneous productivity effects from AI assistance in a specific workflow, supporting separate augmentation modelling.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: The effect size is workflow-specific and should not be generalized into a universal augmentation constant.
Repo use: Candidate reference for replacing a single structural augmentation heuristic with workflow-aware priors.
productivityaugmentation
Used for: augmentation calibration priors
Open source → DOI 10.3386/w31161 GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
article 2023 Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock · OpenAI
Frames LLM exposure around task feasibility and time-saving potential rather than broad automation narratives.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: The paper is early and US-oriented, and it does not by itself provide Singapore labour-market calibration.
Repo use: Used as a reference for the repo's future task-native model direction, not as a direct live source key.
exposuretasks
Used for: LLM-specific task exposure framing · candidate V5 task-native design
GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models
paper 2023 Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock · arXiv / OpenAI
Provides the GPT-oriented exposure source used as one leg of the live exposure ensemble.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Like other exposure indices, it measures capability overlap rather than realised displacement.
Repo use: Kept in the live ensemble because it adds an LLM-specific construct not covered by AIOE alone.
exposure
Used for: LLM exposure source
Labor Market Exposure to AI: Cross-country Differences and Distributional Implications
working paper 2023 Carolina Pizzinelli, et al. · IMF Working Paper
Provides the complementarity framework that the repo operationalises as the human bottleneck layer.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Designed as a broad labour-exposure framing rather than a Singapore occupation-level calibrated outcome model.
Repo use: Directly tied to the theta-based bottleneck implementation in the current scorer.
complementarityexposure
Used for: human bottleneck layer · complementarity framing
Occupational, industry, and geographic exposure to artificial intelligence: A novel dataset and its potential uses
paper 2021 Edward Felten, Manav Raj, Robert Seamans · Strategic Management Journal
Provides the published AIOE occupation exposure dataset used as a baseline source in the ensemble.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Measures theoretical exposure rather than realised AI use or job outcomes.
Repo use: Tied directly to the live AIOE source key and still used in the canonical exposure ensemble.
exposure
Used for: AIOE exposure source · occupation-level exposure baseline
A Method to Link Advances in Artificial Intelligence to Occupational Abilities
paper 2018 Edward Felten, Manav Raj, Robert Seamans · AEA Papers and Proceedings
Introduces the task-ability linkage approach that underpins modern AI-exposure measurement.
Limitations, repo use, and domains
Limitations: Provides the conceptual bridge from AI capabilities to work content, but not current observed usage or Singapore-specific outcomes.
Repo use: Referenced as the foundational exposure framework behind later AIOE-style occupation measures.
exposuretasks
Used for: task-to-occupation exposure framing · methodology background
Open source → DOI 10.1257/pandp.20181021