{
  "version": "V4.3-shadow",
  "generated_at": "2026-03-31T05:43:45.611Z",
  "published_baseline_version": "V4.2",
  "live_structural_version": "V5",
  "shadow_readiness": {
    "status": "promoted",
    "summary": "The V4.3 shadow model was first promoted into the live structural release and is now retained as the immediate pre-V5 baseline. The shadow artifacts remain published for auditability against the earlier V4.2 baseline."
  },
  "shadow_score_published": true,
  "headline_promotion_ready": true,
  "shadow_artifacts": {
    "shadow_scores": "data/shadow-scores-v43.json",
    "shadow_validation": "data/shadow-validation-v43.json",
    "shadow_anchor_review": "data/shadow-anchor-review-v43.json"
  },
  "required_inputs": {
    "anthropic_task_penetration": {
      "file": "data/raw/external/anthropic_task_penetration.csv",
      "present": true
    },
    "onet_task_statements": {
      "file": "data/raw/external/onet/Task_Statements.txt",
      "present": true
    },
    "onet_task_ratings": {
      "file": "data/raw/external/onet/Task_Ratings.txt",
      "present": true
    },
    "empirical_mobility": {
      "file": "data/raw/external/sg_empirical_mobility.json",
      "present": true
    }
  },
  "coverage": {
    "occupation_count": 562,
    "direct_mapped_occupation_count": 521,
    "task_weighted_occupation_count": 485,
    "direct_task_weighted_occupation_count": 456,
    "task_weighted_share": 0.863,
    "direct_task_weighted_share": 0.8752,
    "bootstrap_uncertainty_coverage_share": 1,
    "median_matched_task_weight_share": 1,
    "median_direct_matched_task_weight_share": 1,
    "median_task_effective_coverage": 0.0817,
    "median_task_exposure_concentration": 0.2217
  },
  "promotion_gates": [
    {
      "key": "task_weight_coverage_direct",
      "label": "Median matched task weight share across direct-mapped occupations",
      "threshold": 0.6,
      "comparator": ">=",
      "actual": 1,
      "state": "pass",
      "note": "This gate prevents a sparse task layer from directly changing the headline score before task matching is broadly comparable."
    },
    {
      "key": "shadow_validation",
      "label": "Experimental task-adjusted score matches or improves current validation diagnostics",
      "threshold": "at_least_2_of_3",
      "actual": "2/3",
      "state": "pass",
      "note": "Requires at least 2 of 3 external checks to match or improve baseline. Current results: cluster directional accuracy 0.3333 vs 1; BLS rho -0.1908 vs -0.1437; family rho -0.4457 vs -0.242."
    },
    {
      "key": "anchor_review",
      "label": "No implausible anchor label flips without written rationale",
      "threshold": "zero_unexplained_flips",
      "actual": 0,
      "state": "pass",
      "note": "8/8 anchors screened; 0 candidates still need editorial sign-off."
    }
  ],
  "blockers": [],
  "candidate_formulas": {
    "effective_coverage": "Σ_t w_it · exposure_t · success_t",
    "automation_pressure": "Σ_t w_it · exposure_t · success_t · autonomy_t · (1 - bottleneck_t)",
    "augmentation_upside": "Σ_t w_it · exposure_t · success_t · (1 - autonomy_t) · bottleneck_t",
    "net_risk": "automation_pressure_i · (1 - λ · concentration_i) · market_modifier_i"
  },
  "notes": [
    "This artifact is governance scaffolding for a future task-weighted shadow model. It does not change the published V4.2 score.",
    "confidence remains the provenance-quality layer; uncertainty intervals remain the statistical layer.",
    "Near-term forecast remains published separately from structural risk."
  ]
}